Minnesota Network for Progressive Action

About Comments
The mnpACT! blog welcomes all comments from visitors, which are immediately posted, but we also filter for spammers:
  • No active URLs or web links are allowed (use www.yourweb.com).
  • No drug or pharma- ceutical names are allowed.
  • Your comment "Name" must be one word with no spaces and cannot be an email address.
You should also note that a few IP addresses and homepage URLs have been banned from posting comments because they have posted multiple spam messages.

Please be aware we monitor ALL comments and reserve the right to delete obvious spam comments.



 
Politics Blogs - Blog Top Sites

Listed on BlogShares

 
site search

Site Meter
 
  Progressive Political Blog

Progressive Politics in Minnesota, the Nation, and the World

mnpACT! Survey: For SOS -Ritchie in the Lead

Category: Minnesota Politics
Posted: 05/12/06 13:21

mnpACT! Survey Team

The survey numbers in the DFL Secretary of State contest show Mark Ritchie with a comfortable lead:

Mark Ritchie..............45.1%
Christian Sande.........31.5%
Undecided.................23.5%

But with such a large number of undecideds in this category, this race is still up for grabs. Both Mark Ritchie and Christian Sande have established solid credentials to run for the office and they have concentrated their efforts on the main target -- Mary Kiffmeyer.

Comparing the numbers to the DFL March Straw Poll:

Mark Ritchie..............37.9%
Christian Sande.........15.9%
Undecided.................40.8%

Obviously, Sande has made progress in getting his name out and that work may continue to build his numbers, but Ritchie seems to have established a core of support which clearly make him the frontrunner going into the convention.

Looking at the breakdown:

Ritchie Supporters: The majority favor Mike Hatch for governor and oppose the stadium 49% to 41%. His support is steady across all the districts with strong support among the older delegates.

Sande Supporters: The majority favor Steve Kelley for governor and favor the stadium 48% to 40%. His support is strongest in the metro and tend to be younger.

SOS Undecideds: They slightly favor Mike Hatch over Becky Lourey and are mostly metro residents. They oppose the Twins Stadium by 54% to 29%.

This race looks like it will be a tough call until the actual delegate votes are taken.

Tomorrow: Approval Ratings for Democratic Leaders

comments (3) permalink

mnpACT! Survey: Muddled Governor Picture

Category: Minnesota Politics
Posted: 05/11/06 18:58, Edited: 05/11/06 19:09

mnpACT! Survey Team

Muddled is the word! The numbers for the DFL Governor nomination are a spinners dream -- they are difficult to assess. The main point of fact is that the only numbers that really matter are delegate votes at the Rochester convention. The details of this survey are mere discussion points. You can form your own conclusions. But for what it's worth, here are the final percentages:

Mike Hatch..........................36.2%
Steve Kelley........................27.0%
Becky Lourey.......................25.2%
Undecided...........................11.7%

Let's reiterate that there is a metro bias effect here. This may have an effect on the numbers because the governor candidates, especially, have regional strengths.

For evaluation, we need to review where the surveys came from:

First District----------5.5%
Second District------23.6%
Third District--------12.7%
Fourth District-------19.4%
Fifth District---------18.2%
Sixth District--------11.5%
Seventh District------3.6%
Eighth District---------5.5%

It can be argued that Becky Lourey's numbers are underrepresented because the 8th district is, itself, underrepresented in the survey -- a district that is clearly Lourey's strength. A similar argument could be made for Hatch with lower numbers of completed surveys coming in from District 7, where Hatch does well. But, given all that, the general notion that we have a viable 3 way race cannot be dismissed.

Each candidate can make a strong case. Frontrunner status still goes to Mike Hatch but for anyone to get to 60%, it is going to require some serious "in the trenches" slogging.

First, let's go back and look at the March Caucus straw poll:

March Straw Poll Numbers:

Mike Hatch..........................38.9%
Steve Kelley........................22.1%
Becky Lourey.......................22.5%
Kelly Doran...........................6.4%
Undecided............................9.8%

The comparative numbers would indicate some tightening, with Doran's numbers spread around. Undecideds increased.

Next we can look at some of the indivdual data regarding each candidate:

Mike Hatch: Hatch wins the 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts (the 1st was basically equally divided among the 3 candidates). His weakest district is the 5th, but he has strong second place showings in the 4th and 3rd. He is also the strongest candidate with labor and older activists. His supporters prefer a phased withdrawal from Iraq and give Health Insurance reform the highest issue rating.

Becky Lourey: Lourey dominates in the 8th district -- a situation alluded to in the opening discussion. However, she also wins in the 4th and has a strong second in the 5th. Her supporters are the stongest proponents of bringing the troops home now and have the most interest in impeachment of the President, giving it their 2nd priority of a Democratic Congress....and they also give Health Insurance reform their highest issue rating.

Steve Kelley: Kelley wins in the 3rd and 5th districts. Kelley supporters favor the stadium, support a phased withdrawal from Iraq, and want a Democratic congress to repeal the tax cuts first. Education and Health Care Reform have equal status as priority issues, and his supporters tend to be younger.

General Comments:

Of all the data in the survey, the Governor data is the most difficult to assess. As stated before, the only real numbers that matter are the delegate votes in June, but it can be assumed that this is not going to be a one ballot nomination. The potential for some dramatic convention developments are increasing. The persuasion, the spin and the debates will continue.

Tomorrow: Secretary of State
comments (0) permalink

mnpACT! Survey: Klobuchar Cruising

Category: Minnesota Politics
Posted: 05/10/06 11:34

from the mnpACT! Survey Team

The results of the mnpACT! Survey regarding the Democratic slot for the US Senate race are as follows:

Amy Klobuchar...................78.0%
Ford Bell............................17.1%
Undecided...........................4.9%

It would seem that unless a dramatic shift occurs, Amy Klobuchar is cruising to a first ballot nomination in June. In just about every smaller group breakdown (districts and demographics), Amy's percentage remains steady. Even breaking out the sample of actual delegates and alternates, the percentages still remain about the same.

As mentioned in yesterday's introduction, this survey has a significant metro bias, but in the case of this Senate race, there is no evidence that this matters. All evidence points to Klobuchar in command.

Let's look back to the Caucus straw poll in March (using the best final data we could find..):

Amy Klobuchar....................77.3%
Ford Bell.............................15.5%
Undecided............................7.2%

The comparison indicates that Ford Bell has made very little significant progress in the weeks that have followed. Undecideds may be breaking slightly in Bell's favor, but the support for Klobuchar seems to have solidified.

Again, this survey is not scientific and the only voting that really matters happens in Rochester in June.

Tomorrow: DFL Governor
comments (0) permalink

Calendar

« June 2018 »
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30


Latest posts


Archive

(one year)

Categories


Comments



Links


RSS Feeds

RSS 0.91
RSS 2.0

 
 
 
Powered by
Powered by SBlog
 
Copyright © Minnesota Network for Progressive Action. All rights reserved. Legal. Privacy Policy. Sitemap.